Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
